Results tagged “polls” from onegoodmove

Why pollsters are flummoxed over Clinton and Obama

Why pollsters are flummoxed over Clinton and Obama - opinion - 30 March 2008 - New Scientist

IT'S a battle that has energised the American electorate and caught the attention of the world. But for the pollsters, predicting who will win the Democratic Party's nomination for US president has been a nightmare. From the first primary, when they failed to predict Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire, polling firms have struggled to make accurate forecasts of her state-by-state battles against Barack Obama. Something about the Clinton-Obama tussle - with its overtones of race and gender - has exposed flaws in the science of pre-election polling. The causes are being hotly debated, but the leading contenders are the models used to predict who is likely to get out and vote. "They have no scientific basis," argues Jon Krosnick, a survey methodologist at Stanford University in California. 26493801.jpg