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On killing people who are likely to commit a violent crime in the future.

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RedSeven buys the argument that abortion is the driving force behind the drop in violent crime in the United States. I suspect he got this from the book Freakonomics. I don't doubt that had a part in it, but there are many other factors that probably played a bigger part. Improved law enforcement methods, less true poverty, improved television programming, more gun ownership by law abiding citizens, and the passage of concealed carry laws all come to mind.

9 Replies

  • What law enforcement Methods do you speak of?

    My guess would be that depending on the location poverty has actually gone up according to some measures since welfare reform in the 90's, falling wages, and the current economic crisis.

    I will google that.

    I think If you are going to assert that Conceal and carry laws have reduced crime, and maybe they have, I think you should go look for that stat.

    Anecdotally, I think the improving trend started well before the most recent conceal and carry laws went into effect.

  • So this chart would suggest we are talking about a trend that started in the mid 90's

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/98/Violent_crime_rates_1973-2005.jpg

  • This chart shows a poverty rate that also went down in the mid 90's but reversed that trend in the early 00's

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/US_poverty_rate_timeline.gif/400px-US_poverty_rate_timeline.gif

  • Also, This isn't Minority Report. We aren't executing people that we suspect will be future criminals.

    We gave women the right to control their own reproduction, so as to limit the likelihood they will have children they do not want and/or cannot care for.

  • Oh goodie. Something I can answer in my area of experitse. ^__^

    The position on abortion impacting crime has been shown to be false by Franlin Zimring. Despite the 1.5 million annual abortions, the annual number of live births actually increased slowly after Roe, and those born to single mothers (those said to be at high risk for criminality) increased significantly. Moreover, the evidence for right-to-carry laws on crime is very mixed. The National Academy of Sciences recognizes many of the failures of a lot of these studies in not including relevant variables such as local changes in the market for crack cocaine.

    In fact, it is actually the evidence for street-level crack dealing that has been shown to be a significant contributor to the recent decline in violent crime as the crack trade either diminished or came under tight control in teh mid-1990s. Gang violence has also declined probably due to cooperation in the drug trade and other criminal activities. The data also appears to show that the increase in prison buildup and use was also a contributor.

    I will give credit to Syngas' point on law enforcement tactics as an important factor. Many departments have become skillful at reducing crime rates by improving how they manage police patrols, respon to calls for help, and how they prioritize their time. Focusing on "hot spots" rather than driving their usual beats has helped in this regard.

    Also, believe it or not but changes in public health affect crime rates. Lead can cause reductions in intelligence and increase crime, so when gov'ts work to reduce the amount of leaded gas and paint, teh data suggests this may have also helped crime levels.

    • damn typos >:(

      • Interesting. To evaluate the abortion question, I would really like to see a study that asked mothers if they had wanted to have a child more than just rely on the assumption that single women don't want their children. That probably doesn't change anything...

        I also wonder how things like Meth have impacted the amount of money and importance of connections in drug sales.

    • Thanks Erick, well said. I'll try to find some non-biased stats to back up my conceal weapons permit theory.

      • Agree it's hard to find stats that tie conceal carry with dropping violent crime rates, because violent crime is dropping nearly everywhere in the US. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence, but I know that dog won't hunt here ;)

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