onegoodmove

"Faith can move mountains"?

Or wishful thinking can make it seem like mountains might, maybe, move when the delegate math just doesn't add up. Andrew Sullivan has a great phrase for this: "that's W.-strength power of denial"

The exit polls are depressing (although Obama apparently did better than Kerry or Gore did with working class whites in the state against Bush).

One in four Clinton voters and about one in 10 Obama voters said race was an important factor in their vote .

Maureen Down has some interesting commentary on this issue.

The story quoted Victoria Switzer, a retired social studies teacher, who could take only one night on an Obama phone bank in the nearly all-white Susquehanna County, Pa.: “One caller, Switzer remembers, said he couldn’t possibly vote for Obama and concluded: ‘Hang that darky from a tree!’ ”

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote about complaints of racism after a bar in Marietta, Ga., began selling an Obama 2008 T-shirt with a picture of Curious George peeling a banana.

But hey, just take Clinton's word for it, as she represents the "hard working, white hard working Americans".

And this was kind of funny:

This recent Financial Times piece about West Virginia voters quotes a "lifelong Democrat":

"I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife's an atheist," said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.

Mr. Simpson, that does not even make sense. You think a secret radical Muslim would marry an atheist? Even if it was purely to piss off Christians? Sleeper agent jihadists are not known for their tolerance of Enlightenment principles!

oh I knew it! He's a cryto-Muslim atheist!

One in four? Ouch. Also from that data one in five Obama voters said gender was a factor. I'm wondering if there are any reasons other then biggotry that someone might say race or gender is a factor, like not thinking an african american man or a woman can win the election? It just seems like a high number for something I would think people might not be so open about even under anonymity.

I respect Sen. Clinton's right (hey, this is America) to continue running until the primary process ends in a few weeks, but unless she is planning to win like 150% of the remaining delegates, she simply has no shot of winning. That's not bias, it's just basic math and reality.

My only concern at this point is whether she will lose gracefully. I am not optimistic, though I hope my junior Senator will prove me wrong.

I know Norm might not be the biggest TPM fan these days, but I found this assement vert interesting

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/194870.php

Shows that there is the bias in the media to talk about race, when clearly its more about the intersection of region and race.

Obama didn't win North Dakota on the Hard working white vote.

Obama didn't win North Dakota on the Hard working white vote.

Oh wait, he actually did. Man, I was just sarcastic, with no intention of being so. Is that a sign of trouble?

I would wager $5 on any of the following:

1. Clinton will remain in the race until the very end

2. Clinton has no delusion that she will win, she's in it for the fundraising. She hopes to retire some debt, including the millions upon millions that she owes to herself.

3. The Fla and MI delegates will be seated. This will not affect the outcome.

4. Norm is embarrassed by Clinton's religious pandering at the beginning of this speech.

5. Obama beats McCain, 51% v. 49% in November.

Any takers?

1. Please define, "the very end"

2.no comment

1. true

2. no way to see who wins

3. that may be the number if you exclude third parties, but I think the obama path to victory involves republicans and racist Dems voting Libertarian.

Any takers?

Yep. I'm a taker except for number 5. I have no idea how the general election will turn out.

Obama beats McCain, 51% v. 49% in November.

Hmmm.... This depends on the extent to which Bush's goons can keep the lid on bad economic news. For example, today they managed to make the inflation report look good - a "seasonal adjustment" of energy prices was used to put a drop in energy prices into today prices report! Did you all notice how gasoline prices dropped in April? (!)

From that report:

Today's report showed energy expenses were unchanged after a 1.9 percent increase in March as gasoline prices dropped 2 percent.

The Bush administration will be doing everything it can to make economic news seem better than it is. If they can make the recession look mild, I won't take this bet. If they fail, Obama 56%, McCain 44%. Nader < 1%.

Tim:

I think your numbers are closer to reality. However, I fear we are in another squeaker.

RedSeven:

The Very End = the last primary, which I believe is the first week of June.

JoAnn:

Wait a sec- are you agreeing, or willing to bet against these brash claims of mine?

Clarity:

With gas at $4/gal, I ain't got no $5 to wager with- I was being dramatic.

Clinton has no delusion that she will win, she's in it for the fundraising. She hopes to retire some debt, including the millions upon millions that she owes to herself.

Basically, this multimillionaire would be going out hat in hand, taking donations from those hard-working white folk, many of whom might have a hard time paying their heating bills, so that they can foot the bill for her failed vanity campaign. After all, they wouldn't want her and Bill to have to give up one of their summer homes! I guess if they're willing to be such huge suckers, they deserve to freeze this winter.

She's staying in it because at the convention, the super delegates can force Obama to accept her as VP. Here's a link to the full story. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/ifclintonwantstobevpobam.html

new chant? o-blit-erate! o-blit-erate! i sure hope not. please god (she keeps mentioning god so, i will too) god, please, send the clintons on a nice vacation anywhere but DC.