The reality is that the Republicans told the American public a pack of lies to start an aggressive and illegal war of choice. Then they botched the job in every way imaginable, making sure that what was already likely to be a disaster would certainly become one. Now they are deliberately prolonging their folly, jacking up the costs in blood and treasure, all in a desperate effort to avoid paying the political price for admitting their failure. A moment’s reflection makes it perfectly clear why. The Republican Party can survive losing the war in Iraq. They cannot survive getting blamed for it.

I posed this question to a few political operative friends of mine, at least two of whom are Republicans, at lunch. “If the idea that the Republicans cannot be trusted with matters of National Security hardens into conventional wisdom, how exactly does the Republican Party ever win another national election?” There was no dissent. If the Republicans lose their edge on national security, the federal government is going to look like it did during the Roosevelt era for a decade, maybe two.

Karl Rove Republicans know this. They realize they cannot lose the war in Iraq and remain politically viable. They also realize that we are long past the time that anything that looks like a “victory” is going to be salvaged from the sands of Mesopotamia. So the battle is now over who is going to take the blame for the inevitable loss. And, as usual, the Republicans are playing three dimensional chess with lasers while the Democrats are pushing wooden checker pieces around the wrong board.

Everything the White House does over the next sixteen months is not merely an attempt to pass the Iraq war onto Bush’s successor. The larger strategic objective is to make sure that when Bush’s successor inevitably withdraws the troops, the Republicans can then blame them for losing the war. Accordingly, for the next sixteen months, the Bush administration’s sole goal is to provide the appearance that progress is being made in Iraq.

As we have seen over the past two weeks, the facts on the ground in Iraq simply do not matter. Regardless of what actually happens in Iraq, right up until the moment Bush’s Democratic successor is sworn into office, the Republican talking point is one word: Progress! Then, the moment a Democrat is sworn into office, it will change like a light switch. In fact, they might not even wait for the inauguration. More likely, as soon as it becomes apparent that the Republicans are going to lose the White House, they will start blaming the insurgent attacks and low morale of the troops on the coming Democratic takeover, before they even take office.

If the Democratic leadership could look further than five minutes ahead, they wouldn’t argue that the war is already lost (even though it is). They wouldn’t argue that that the military isn’t making any real progress in Iraq (even though they aren’t). Nor would they argue that Bush and the Republicans are only prolonging the war so they can pass it on to Bush’s successor (even though they are).

Instead, Democrats should repeat into the camera at every single opportunity that the Bush administration’s sole strategic objective in continuing the war in Iraq is to avoid being blamed for losing it. By putting it this way, even the American public will understand what is going on. And when the time comes to pay the political price for this awful mess, the Republicans won’t be able to pass the bill on to someone else.